AUSTRALIA: AFL – Round 3
NAME: Adelaide Crows – Geelong Cats
DATE: April 4, 2019
TIME: 08:50 UTC
VENUE: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide , Australia
My prediction on the match Crows vs Cats
Geelong Cats have great start of new season and won 2 of 2 games, against Collingwood Magpies (vice-champions of 2018) and Melbourne Demons.
Veteran Gary Ablett and co are in very good conditions and have well balanced team. I think it is the strongest team at the start of 2019 season and now they can beat every team in the League.
Crows is 1-1 after 2 rounds (both matches against strong teams) and they are far from stability which is in Geelong team.
I think Cats must to be the favorite of the match, but bookies give very high odds for them. This is value bet because Cats are much stronger right now and have better chances to win this match.
So, my prediction and pick for this game:
Geelong Cats to win the match with odds 2.19 (117/100 in Fractional Odds) in Marathonbet
The opening match of round three sees the undefeated and top of the ladder Geelong Cats (who currently hold a sky rocket percentage of 178.38), do battle against the 1-1 Adelaide Crows.
Not only do they Cats have to deal with an interstate trip this week, they also only have a five-day break between games, a combination which has seen the club lose the last two times such factors have conspired against them.
The upside, however, is that the club have a relatively short injury list, their team confidence is sky high, plus in the last seven matches they have started as a ‘betting underdog’ away from home, they have won four times.
Not only did Adelaide wrestle their way to a victory last week, they did it with the return from injury of Paul Seedsman (17 disposals) who looked composed every time he touched the ball. Few will forget that 60 metre torpedo goal in a hurry!
Despite losing their round one opening match at home, Adelaide have won six of their last ten matches when playing as a home ‘betting favourite’, and have beaten the Cats by an average margin of 32 points in their last three encounters.
Players to watch: Former Bulldog Luke Dahlhaus (Cats) has been terrific in his two games for his new club, setting the tone with his pressure, tackling and one percenters. A hard tag awaits him this week.
Crows captain Taylor Walker has only kicked one goal this year from five attempts. Word has it he spent extra practice time this week working on his technique.
Stat attack: The last time Geelong won their first three matches was 2017, when they finished the regular season in second place.
Geelong lead the competition in tackles this year with 79.5 a game, while the Crows are ranked 12th (60.5).
The Crows are ranked 17th in the competition for clangers, registering just 54.0 a match.
Rory Sloane (Crows) has earned top Brownlow votes in the last two regular season matches between these two teams.
source – flashscore