NAME: Melbourne Demons – Essendon Bombers
DATE: April 5, 2019
TIME: 08:50 UTC
VENUE: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne , Australia
My prediction to the match
Melbourne Demons and Essendon Bombers are two teams which have not any points in 2019. Both teams lost 2 of 2 starting matches and need to the first victory, but who can win this game? Let’s try to understand.
Melbourne Demons were 5th in 2018 and have 6 wins and 5 loses in 11 home games. Essendon Bombers have 5/6 and 20 points in away games in 2018.
Both teams aren’t in their best conditions now and this 4 points will be important for both.
This match will be at Melbourne’s home stadium and this is main thing why I will bet for the Demons.
Other parameters of these teams mostly equal and home stadium will be the key factor.
My prediction and bet for this match:
Melbourne Demons to win the match with odds 1.46 in Marathonbet
Who would have envisioned this round three matchup being of such high importance? With both the Essendon Bombers and Melbourne Demons winless this year (each having an average losing margin of over 40 points), that is exactly what this contest is.
While the loser still has a chance of playing finals (Sydney made September with an 0-6 start a couple of years ago), any hopes of a top-four berth will almost surely be gone.
Not since 1966 have Essendon started a season 0-3, but after their very ordinary effort last week, that is what lays ahead without sharp improvement. The upside for coach John Worsfold is that the club has a fairly short injury list. As such, expect changes in personnel to be made.
With a number of Demon players having had reduced training during the off-season, there was concern the club would start the year slow. However, kicking just six goals from 72 inside 50s last week was simply dreadful. Are they missing Jesse Hogan more than anticipated?
One upside for them is that when playing as a home ‘favourite’, Melbourne have won 14 of their last 20 matches in addition to winning the last two H2H matches by more than a -15.5 point handicap (victories of 36 and 38).
Players to watch: In the opening two rounds of the season, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (Bombers) has had a total of 12 disposals and gone goalless. Is this his last chance?
The last time these two teams met, Max Gawn (Demons) collected 42 hitouts and kicked two goals, earning a clear ‘best on ground’ performance. He has been heavily criticised this week for his slow start to the season, so expect him to come out fired up.
Stat attack: Melbourne average just 63 marks a match this year compared to Essendon’s 83.
Essendon have failed to cover the closing spread in both of their matches this season.
So far in 2019, Melbourne average nine more centre clearances a match than Essendon (16-7).
The last three H2H matches played at the MCG have produced a final margin of under 15.5 points.