It’s that time of year—the 2024-2025 NBA MVP odds race is peaking, and the sportsbooks are flashing neon signs pointing to one man: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But like any good MVP debate, it ain’t over ’til it’s over.
Who is still in the fight for NBA regular season MVP, and who has already fallen out of the race according to the odds? Let’s break it down.
Current NBA MVP Odds at Offshore and U.S. Sportsbooks (Updated April 3, 2025)
The odds tell a story of a battle between only two players at this point—and not a close battle at that. Some books have straight removed the market entirely because they want no more action and deem the race to be over with. No matter the narrative, here is the current landscape at a few offshore and US sportsbooks.
| Player | BetUS (Offshore) | MyBookie (Offshore) | BetMGM (U.S.) | FanDuel (U.S.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | -2500 | -2273 | -2000 | -4000 |
| Nikola Jokić (DEN) | +850 | +928 | +900 | +1000 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) | N/A (not offered) | N/A (not offered) | N/A (not offered) | N/A (not offered) |
| Jayson Tatum (BOS) | N/A (not offered) | N/A (not offered) | N/A (not offered) | N/A (not offered) |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Clear Favorite
Right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t just leading the MVP race—he’s sprinting ahead, and we’re in the final laps. He’s listed anywhere from -2000 to -4000. That means even with the best line, you’d have to bet $2,000 just to win $100.
It sounds wild, but it kinda makes sense. The dude’s averaging around 33 points a night, leading the NBA in scoring, and anchoring the Thunder at the top of the Western Conference. That’s basically textbook MVP stuff right there.
Then, you’ve got the narrative: small-market guy, still kinda under the radar to casual fans, but putting up numbers like a prime Kobe.
I remember watching an OKC game in January with my buddy—he’s a Nuggets fan and swore Jokić had it locked. By halftime, SGA had dropped 25 with the smoothest midrange game you’ve seen this side of 2005. My boy basically sipped his beer in silence the rest of the night.
Jokić Isn’t Done Yet – Your Value Play Long Shot
Now, if you’re a value bettor—or just love watching basketball poetry in motion—Nikola Jokić still has a real shot, a real long shot, that is. His odds are in the range from +850 to +1000, depending on where you shop. That’s a $100 bet to potentially win up to $1,000.
What about Jokić’s numbers on the court? Silly. Nearly averaging a triple-double with about 29 points, 12.7 boards, and 10.5 assists a game. It also helps that he just put up a 61-point game on Tuesday. That’s not human. That’s NBA 2K on rookie mode sort of stats.
Even with SGA in the lead, Jokić isn’t fading quietly. I mean, yeah, he’s won 3 of the last 4 years, but could he really pull it out again? He’s actually the most bet-on MVP pick at BetMGM. Makes sense—longer odds, proven winner, and if SGA stumbles late, boom, Jokić could sneak it.
What About Giannis & Tatum?
Clearly, when you’re looking at the odds, the answer is… not this year. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum are sitting way back at +50000. That’s 500-to-1 if you can even find them. As of this week, most of the books I’m tracking don’t even list either of them. Basically, the sportsbooks are saying it’s over for them.
Whether it was injuries (Giannis) or the Celtics’ up-and-down moments (Tatum), they’ve been relegated to “thanks for playing” territory. I mean, Tatum’s not even on the board anymore at some offshore books. It’s like he straight got voted off the MVP island.
So, Is The Best Bet at Offshore or Regulated Books?
Unsurprisingly, you can find close-ish lines at both, but as the gap widens, it’s clear the bookmakers aren’t all in agreement.
MyBookie and BetMGM are lighter on SGA (-2000 to -2273) compared to FanDuel (-4000). And for Jokić, you’re getting the best value at FanDuel (+1000) right now, but with MyBookie (+928) shortly behind. So if you’re shopping lines, those differences might matter.
If the gaps are large when you look, take the better line wherever you can get it. Personally, I still like offshore books right now because of the fast-moving odds and potential value grabs. (Plus, I usually play with crypto and they are available to more bettors.)
The Bigger Picture Throughout The Season
It’s worth noting the new 65-game minimum rule for award eligibility removed several early-season contenders (e.g. Joel Embiid, Luka Dončić) from consideration, narrowing the field to essentially SGA vs. Jokić by March.
SGA’s odds have been tightening like a vise grip all season. He started around +600 or +700 in preseason, then climbed into the negatives by late January. He dipped briefly when Jokić surged in February, but since then, it’s been all Gilgeous-Alexander.
But there’s still noise in the media. Some analysts are saying, “Hey, don’t hand the trophy over just yet.” Others claim it’s all but wrapped. Even ESPN straw polls keep the door slightly open.
Then there’s the fan chatter: BetOnline’s Twitter geo-map showed SGA leading MVP chatter in 26 states, Jokić in 24. Even the internet can’t make up its mind. This public sentiment split shows that Jokić’s case is still compelling to many fans, even if the betting markets have him as an underdog.
So, Who You Taking to Win NBA MVP This Year?
If you’re betting chalk, you’re rolling with SGA. It’s the safe play, the likely outcome, the guy with the narrative and the numbers. But if you’ve got a gambler’s heart and want that bigger return, Jokić might be worth a dart throw. The man’s playing out of his mind, and if voters decide they can’t overlook historic efficiency just because he’s won it before? That’s your path.
Choosing player awards isn’t quite the same as betting on actual NBA games. So, let me know who you’re backing in the comments—or hit me with your best conspiracy theory about why SGA’s odds are secretly too good to be true. Just keep it civil. And hey, if you win big, first round is on you.
About the Author
Alonzo Solano
The Boss of Betting, Editor-in-Chief & Sports Analyst
Alonzo Solano is an author, sports analyst, Editor in Chief of BossofBetting.com, and host of the 'NFL Latino TV' podcast.
Outside of family, his biggest passion is NFL football. Perhaps he is best known for his podcast 'NFL Latino TV,' where he shares his analysis and perspectives on the game with a worldwide Spanish-speaking audience.
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