Americans love an underdog story, but when it comes to placing a bet, most people hesitate to back one. Instead, the public tends to favor betting on the stronger team—often without much thought about whether the odds truly offer value. This bias toward favorites is one of the biggest trends in sports betting.
The love for favorites isn’t just about confidence in a better team; it’s also a result of how point spreads are perceived. Many casual bettors assume the favorite is the “safer” choice, ignoring key factors like inflated lines and market inefficiencies. Understanding when to bet favorites—and when to avoid them—can give you an edge.
In this guide, we’ll break down when betting favorites makes sense, when it doesn’t, and how to take advantage of public perception to find value in the betting market. Let’s get into it.
Why Do People Bet On Favorites More Than Underdogs?
It comes down to how people think about gambling. The first thing that the average bettor considers when betting a game is which team will win. That’s fine if we’re wagering on moneylines, but there is a big difference between covering the spread and winning the game.
That is the major disconnect you will find between professional level sports bettors (those with a clue), and amateurs are that sharps understand that it isn’t about winning the game. Instead, it is about covering the spread. The typical sports bettor who places a bet is focusing too much on which team will win the game, rather than which team will cover the spread. Recent studies and information regarding NFL betting patterns show that most people bet on the favorite 2/3rds of the time.
It doesn’t take much critical thought to determine if the point spread is too high. Instead, “this team is better than that team” and “if they win the game, they will probably cover” is enough for most people to make a bet. Most sports bettors seem to rationalize that if they believe that a team will win the game, they’re also going to cover the spread.
Should We Always Bet On Underdogs?
No, you shouldn’t always bet on the underdog. It’s important to note that blindly fading the public opinion on sports betting markets is not a winning strategy. In most cases, the oddsmakers are not shading their lines due to public opinion, but this does happen in broader markets, such as the NFL.
People bet on the favorite when it comes to NFL points spreads a disproportional amount of time. However, they only cover about 50% of the time. When you’re betting on the NFL – there is a good chance that you’re paying an increase in price when betting a favorite compared to the underdog.
Ultimately, sharp bettors move the odds in most cases, but when it comes to betting on football, there are certainly times when the sportsbooks will alter their odds due to the public’s infatuation with underdogs. There is no difference when it comes to betting vig on an underdog compared to a favorite.
However, statistically speaking, when betting NFL football, leaning towards wagering on underdogs is a viable strategy. Still, the basics of sports betting success remain the same.
Betting Smarter, Not Just Following the Crowd
Betting on favorites feels safe, but it isn’t always the smartest move. The public’s bias toward backing stronger teams often inflates lines, making favorites less valuable than they seem. That’s why sharp bettors focus on covering the spread rather than simply picking winners.
That doesn’t mean you should blindly bet underdogs either. While NFL data suggests there’s value in backing dogs, the key to long-term success lies in understanding market movement, spotting mispriced lines, and recognizing when oddsmakers adjust for public perception.
At the end of the day, successful sports betting isn’t about favorites vs. underdogs—it’s about finding value and selecting the right offshore sportsbook. Whether you’re backing a powerhouse or taking a shot on an overlooked team, the goal remains the same: make smart bets, not popular ones.
About the Author
Alonzo Solano
The Boss of Betting, Editor-in-Chief & Sports Analyst
Alonzo Solano is an author, sports analyst, Editor in Chief of BossofBetting.com, and host of the 'NFL Latino TV' podcast.
Outside of family, his biggest passion is NFL football. Perhaps he is best known for his podcast 'NFL Latino TV,' where he shares his analysis and perspectives on the game with a worldwide Spanish-speaking audience.
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