When the odds are 3.50 the expected chance of winning is 29%, but this team actually wins 18% matches with these odds.
When the odds are 2.05 the expected chance of winning is 49%, but this team actually wins 79% matches with these odds.
1-0 loss last time around meant each of Gwangju’s four K League 1 (KL1) losses have come accompanied by a scoring blank with three finishing 1-0. Pertinently, three of Gwangju’s five KL1 ‘goals against’ in those four losses arrived before the 15th minute. Regardless, each of Gwangju’s last four KL1 games have seen at least one match goal arrive beyond the 80th minute.
Gwangju have picked up 70% of their campaign points (W2, D1, L1) and 85.71% of their goals (6/7) at home. Each of their last three KL1 home games have seen goals at both ends, with two-thirds of the match goals (scored/conceded) during this sequence (6/9) coming beyond the 60th minute.
Pohang Steelers’ latest 2-0 win continued their sequence of alternating wins/losses over the last six league games. Encouragingly for the visitors, each of their wins have come with a 2+ goal margin, while two of the three losses saw a slim one-goal margin. Regardless, Pohang have scored first in each of their seven scoring KL1 games.
That includes all games away from home this term, where Pohang are unbeaten (W2, D1), extending their run to five such games (W4, D1). This sequence saw Pohang average 3.2 goals per game, while scoring exactly four goals in their last two KL1 road trips. Additionally, Pohang have led 2-1 at half-time in their last two KL1 away games.
Players to watch: Gwangju have won all three matches that Felipe Silva has netted in this campaign, twice as their first scorer. Meanwhile, Stanislav Iljutcenko (POH) has been the first match scorer in all the five league games he’s netted in.
Stat attack: Gwangju have never won a KL1 H2H (D5, L10).
Pohang have averaged one first-half goal per KL1 game, more than twice the league average (0.45) this campaign.
Pohang have scored first in each of their last five KL1 away games.
My prediction for the match
Yes, both teams won 3 of last 5 matches, but Pohang are much better now even without Palosevic which got an injury in the match vs Jeonbuk.
I think Pohang have much better chances to win the match and my prediction is
Pohang to win with asian handicap -0.25 goals and best odds 2.01 in 10bet https://t.me/thebossofbetting/298
And my video about this match on YouTube